Tension Warning: Russia and Ukraine

US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan provided new information about the Russia-Ukraine conflict. According to the White House, it is expected that Russia will begin its invasion of Ukraine before the end of the Chinese Olympics. The US government has stated that American citizens living in Ukraine must leave the country within the next 24 to 48 hours. On the other hand, Russia states that this fuss is groundless. In their official statement, Russia underlines that the news in the Western media about invasion does not reflect the truth. Putin is determined to highlight their shared history, describing Russians and Ukrainians as "one people”.


Hold on, let’s rewind a bit to understand the background of this tension.

The relations between Ukraine, a former Soviet Union country, and Russia fell out after the rapprochement of the Kyiv administration with the European Union. Russia was not fond of Western-friendly Ukraine since its hegemony is at risk. In 2013, The President of Ukraine Viktor Yanukovych suspended the association agreement with the EU, which was at the signing stage. Thousands of pro-Western people protested Yanukovych's decision on Independence Square. Yanukovych was eventually forced to flee to Moscow in February 2014. Later in 2014, Crimea, a strategically important peninsula, was illegally invaded by Russian troops It wasn’t only Crimea. Pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine called Donbas have been illegally ruling for about 7 years.


What’s With the U.S Government?

America manages to catch up with this event even from another continent. Probably because the global economy and America’s status depends highly on this tension. Let’s list all economical and political consequences:

  • Russia ships a significant amount of Europe’s gas through Ukraine. Any uprising might harm this supply chain as it will raise fuel and oil prices.

  • Stock market tumbles as investors are worried about global impacts.

  • Putin accuses the US of trying to draw his country into a war in Ukraine.

  • Inflation is one of the biggest problems that the US economy is facing. The Russia-Ukraine crisis could make it worse.

  • Uncertainty increases as the U.S economy slow down.

Considering what we have said, the probability of an upcoming war should not be underestimated. The world of politics is full of surprises. However, we are deeply hoping for peace to be found before violence takes over.

 

Melis Ata